With the Dow Jones Industrials (DJINDICES: ^DJI ) at a new record high, cautious investors are starting to pay attention to valuation more closely than ever on the stocks that interest them. Yet whenever you use simple measures to try to assess whether a stock is cheap or expensive, you need to understand that your conclusions are only as strong as the accuracy of the data. If you rely on numbers that might not be correct, then you could make mistakes in your evaluation of a stock's true value.
Book value is a great example of how financial numbers can be misleading. Let's look at the four cheapest stocks in the Dow in terms of price-to-book ratios and try to assess whether those stocks are actually good values at their current prices.
A valuation that's lighter than aluminum
Among Dow stocks, Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) has the cheapest valuation based on price-to-book ratio, with shares fetching just 68% of book value. The aluminum industry overall is in terrible condition, and so peers such as Chinalco also trade at similar levels compared to book value. For its part, Alcoa has had to shutter some of its production facilities recently, strongly suggesting that its plant and equipment items on its balance sheet aren't necessarily producing as much profit as their book value would suggest.
Top Blue Chip Stocks For 2015: Wyndham Worldwide Corp(WYN)
Wyndham Worldwide Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides various hospitality products and services to individual consumers and business customers in the United States and internationally. It offers its products and services under the Wyndham Hotels and Resorts, Ramada, Days Inn, Super 8, Howard Johnson, Wyndham Rewards, Wingate by Wyndham, Microtel, RCI, The Registry Collection, ResortQuest, Landal GreenParks, Novasol, Hoseasons, cottages4you, James Villa Holidays, Wyndham Vacation Resorts, and WorldMark by Wyndham brand names. The company?s Lodging segment franchises hotels in the upscale, midscale, economy, and extended stay markets of the lodging industry, as well as provides hotel management services for full-service hotels. Its Vacation Exchange and Rentals segment provides vacation exchange products and services, as well as access to distribution systems and networks to resort developers and owners of intervals of vacation ownership interests (VOIs); a nd markets vacation rental properties primarily on behalf of independent owners, vacation ownership developers, and other hospitality providers. Wyndham Worldwide Corporation?s Vacation Ownership segment develops and markets VOIs to individual consumers; and provides consumer financing in connection with the sale of VOIs, as well as offers property management services at resorts. The company is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Zacks Investment Research]
But what if that company has put together a hot streak of earnings beats? What if a company has beaten not just two or three quarters in a row, but 20 quarters in a row - or 5 years - without a miss? Apple (AAPL) had put together just such an impressive earnings surprise streak until it finally missed in late 2011. In the 6 quarters since the miss, it has missed another 3 times. Share price, however, peaked in between the second and third miss.
But during its earnings surprise streak, investors were handsomely rewarded. Perfection Isn't Easy Even with all of the unknowns in investing, I'd rather buy a company that is on an earnings hot streak, than one that is dead cold. Companies with a perfect earnings track record for the last 5 years are a small select group. It's incredibly difficult to keep beating for 5 years through all the ups and downs in the economy. Management has to manage expectations very, very well. There's little room for error. That takes skill (and maybe some luck.) These three companies haven't missed in 5 years. I featured two of these companies last quarter and they came through with another earnings beat. Of course, an earnings beat doesn't necessarily mean a stock will rise afterwards. Being light on guidance or an earnings/sales warning, for instance, could put the damper on an earnings beat. But I still like my chances with an earnings beat versus an earnings miss. Will their streaks continue this earnings season? 3 Companies With Perfect Earnings Surprise Track Records1. Wyndham Worldwide (WYN)Wyndham is one of the largest hospitality companies in the world. It operates about 630,000 hotel rooms worldwide and operates vacation rentals and exchanges with over 106,000 vacation properties in 100 countries. It also operates a network of 190 timeshare properties with about 915,000 owners.Forward P/E = 15.4Expected 2013 earnings growth = 15%Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)Reporting second quarter results on July 24 2. Jarden Corporation (JAH)Jarde
Top Cheapest Companies To Invest In 2014: IBERIABANK Corporation (IBKC)
IBERIABANK Corporation operates as the holding company for IBERIABANK that provides commercial and retail banking products and services in the United States. It offers a range of commercial, consumer, mortgage, and private banking products and services; cash management services; deposit and annuity products; and investment brokerage services. The company, through its subsidiaries, also engages in financial services-related activities, including brokerage services and sales of variable annuities, life, health, dental, and accident insurance products. In addition, it offers various title insurance and loan closing services for residential and commercial customers; family residential mortgage loans; equity research, institutional sales and trading, and corporate finance services; and wealth management and trust services to high net worth individuals, pension funds, corporations, and trusts, as well as invests in an aircraft and purchased tax credits. As of February 25, 2013, the company had 278 combined offices, including 184 bank branch offices in Louisiana, Arkansas, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, and Texas; 21 title insurance offices in Arkansas and Louisiana; and mortgage representatives in 62 locations in 12 states. IBERIABANK Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Lafayette, Louisiana.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Dividends4Life]
Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number
CTBI is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. The stock is trading at a 53.5% premium to its calculated fair value of $29.43. CTBI did not earn any Stars in this section.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
CTBI earned one Star in this section for 1.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1988 and has increased its dividend payments for 33 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA
The negative NPV MMA Diff. means that on a NPV basis the dividend earnings from an investment in CTBI would be less than a similar amount invested in MMA earning a 20-year average rate of 3.41%. If CTBI grows its dividend at 1.5% per year, it will never equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.41%.
Memberships and Peers: CTBI is, a member of the Broad Dividend Achieve
Top Cheapest Companies To Invest In 2014: Athlon Energy Inc (ATHL)
Athlon Energy Inc., incorporated on April 1, 2013, is an independent exploration and production company. The Company is a holding company and its sole assets are controlling equity interests in Athlon Holdings LP and its subsidiaries. The Company is focused on the acquisition, development and exploitation of unconventional oil and liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin. The Permian Basin spans portions of Texas and New Mexico and consists of three primary sub-basins: the Delaware Basin, the Central Basin Platform and the Midland Basin. The Company�� properties are located in the Midland Basin. Its drilling activity is focused on the vertical development of stacked pay zones, including the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, Cline, Strawn, Atoka and Mississippian formations, which it refers to collectively as the Wolfberry play. The Company's acreage position was 124,925 gross at May 31, 2013, which it grousp into three primary areas based on geographic location within the Midland Basin: Howard, Midland and Other and Glasscock. As of April 30, 2013, the Company operated up to eight vertical drilling rigs and has drilled 218 gross operated vertical Wolfberry wells. In February 2014, Athlon Energy Inc announced that subsidiary, Athlon Holdings LP completed the acquisition of certain oil and natural gas properties and related assets in the Midland Basin of West Texas.
As of March 15, 2013, there were 478 total rigs operating in the Permian Basin. The Company�� properties are located within the Midland Basin in areas with approximately 3,000 feet to 4,000 feet of stacked pay zones. Its vertical drilling program is targeting the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, Cline, Strawn, Atoka and Mississippian formations.
Howard
The Company operates four rigs in this area. As of May 31, 2013, the Company had 69,661 gross acres and an inventory of 1,577 gross (1,140 net) identified vertical drilling locations on 40-acre spacing and an additional 1,741 gross identified vertical drilling ! locations on 20-acre spacing. As of April 30, 2013, it had identified 506 gross horizontal drilling locations consisting of 147 gross Wolfcamp A locations, 172 gross Wolfcamp B locations, 25 gross Wolfcamp C locations, 111 gross Cline locations and 51 gross Mississippian locations.
Midland and Other
The Company operates two rigs in this area. As of May 31, 2013, the Company had 36,694 gross acres and an inventory of 424 gross (390 net) identified vertical drilling locations on 40-acre spacing and an additional 463 gross (414 net) identified vertical drilling locations on 20-acre spacing. As of April 30, 2013, it has identified 352 gross horizontal drilling locations consisting of 64 gross Wolfcamp A locations, 125 gross Wolfcamp B locations, 97 gross Wolfcamp C locations and 66 gross Cline locations.
Glasscock
The Company operates one rig in this area. As of May 31, 2013, it had 18,570 gross net acres and an inventory of 297 gross (267 net) identified vertical drilling locations on 40-acre spacing and an additional 400 gross identified vertical drilling locations on 20-acre spacing. As of April 30, 2013, it had identified 232 gross horizontal drilling locations consisting of 54 gross Wolfcamp A locations, 58 gross Wolfcamp B locations, 58 gross Wolfcamp C locations and 62 gross Cline locations.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Matt Jarzemsky var popups = dojo.query(".socialByline .popC"); popups.forEach]
The drillers considered to be Parsley�� closest peers include Diamondback Energy Inc.(FANG), which has seen its shares rally 38% so far this year through Thursday. Athlon Energy Inc.(ATHL), another similar company, is up 43% this year and 116% since its August IPO.
Top Cheapest Companies To Invest In 2014: KBR Inc. (KBR)
KBR, Inc. operates as an engineering, construction, and services company supporting the energy, hydrocarbon, government services, minerals, civil infrastructure, power, and industrial sectors worldwide. Its Downstream business unit provides front end engineering design; detailed engineering; engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC); EPC management; and program management services to petrochemical, refining, coal gasification, and syngas markets. The company?s Government and Infrastructure business unit provides program and project management, contingency logistics, operations and maintenance, construction management, engineering, and other services to military and civilian branches of governments and private clients. Its Services business unit delivers engineering, construction, construction management, fabrication, maintenance, and turnaround services. It also offers maintenance, construction, and drilling support services for offshore oil and gas producing facili ties using semisubmersible vessels. This segment serves oil, gas, petrochemicals, and hydrocarbon processing industries, as well as power, alternate energy, pulp and paper, industrial and manufacturing, and pharmaceutical industries. The company?s Technology business unit offers various process technologies, including value-added technologies in the coal monetization, petrochemical, refining, and syngas markets. Its Upstream business unit constructs liquefied natural gas, gas-to-liquids, onshore oil and gas production facilities, offshore oil and gas production facilities, and onshore and offshore pipelines. The company?s Ventures business unit invests in and manages projects, where the company provides engineering, construction, construction management or operations, and maintenance services. KBR, Inc. was founded in 1901 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Rich Smith]
This umbrella contract authorizes four separate contractors -- privately held CH2M Hill Constructors and Environmental Chemical Corp, and publicly traded KBR (NYSE: KBR ) and URS (NYSE: URS ) -- to bid for individual task orders under it. In total, across the contract's one-year "base period" and the up to four subsequent one-year optional extensions, this contract is estimated to have a maximum dollar value of $800 million. It is not to exceed 60 months in duration and so should expire in June 2018.
Top Cheapest Companies To Invest In 2014: Centerra Gold Inc (CAGDF.PK)
Centerra Gold Inc. (Centerra) is a gold mining company. The Company is engaged in the production of gold and related activities, including exploration, development, mining and processing in the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Turkey, China and the Russian Federation. The Company�� producing gold mines properties include Kumtor, in the Kyrgyz Republic (100%) and Boroo, in Mongolia (100%). Centerra�� development project includes Gatsuurt, in Mongolia. Its exploration projects include ATO, in Mongolia (100%); Oksut, in Turkey (100%); Kara Beldyr, in Russia (70%); Dvoinoy, in Russia (40%), and Ulaan Bulag, in Mongolia (100%). Kumtor gold mine is located in the Kyrgyz Republic, about 350 kilometers southeast of the capital Bishkek and about 60 kilometers north of the border with the People�� Republic of China. The Boroo gold mine is located in Mongolia some 110 kilometers to the northwest of the capital city of Ulaanbaatar. The Kara Beldyr project is a joint venture with Auriant Mining Company. Advisors' Opinion:- [By Itinerant]
Goldcorp, Newmont (NEM) or Agnico-Eagle use similar definitions. The important element here is the so-called 'sustaining capital expenditure', which is the capital required to sustain existing production levels. The table below is taken from the Agnico-Eagle presentation referenced above and provides a comparison of company-wide AISC for some of the major gold miners, including Goldcorp, Barrick Gold, Newmont Mining, Yamana Gold (AUY), Randgold (GOLD), Kinross (KGC), Agnico-Eagle Mines, Eldorado Gold (EGO), Goldfields and Centerra (CAGDF.PK). The difference between cash costs and AISC is significant. It is also important to note that these AISC are still noticeably below the present spot price for gold.
Top Cheapest Companies To Invest In 2014: Navistar International Corporation (NAV)
Navistar International Corporation, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial and military trucks, buses, diesel engines, and recreational vehicles, as well as provides service parts for trucks and trailers worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Truck, Engine, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck segment manufactures and distributes trucks and buses for the common carrier, private carrier, government, leasing, construction, energy/petroleum, military vehicles, and student and commercial transportation markets under the International and IC brands; assembles components; and produces sheet metal components, including truck cabs. This segment markets its products through its independent dealer network, and distribution and service network retail outlets comprising 784 in the United States and Canada, 86 in Mexico, and 292 internationally, as well as markets reconditioned used trucks to owner-operators and fleet buyers through its network of us ed truck centers. The Engine segment designs, manufactures, and sells diesel engines under the MaxxForce brand for use in the medium trucks, heavy trucks, and military vehicles, as well as for its IC branded school buses and other applications. The Parts segment provides customers with products required to support the company�s brands, as well as offers other truck, trailer, and engine service parts. The Financial Services segment provides and manages retail, wholesale, and lease financing services for products sold by the Truck and Parts segments and their dealers. It also operates as a private-label designer and manufacturer of diesel engines for the pickup truck, van, and sport utility vehicle markets. Navistar International Corporation was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Lisle, Illinois.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Ben Levisohn]
Shares of Navistar (NAV) has fallen more than 4% today after UBS cut its rating on the truck manufacturer.
APUBS analyst Steven Fisher and team explain why they downgraded Navistar:
We see a slower ramp to improved profitability than we previously expected and we believe earnings could fall short of consensus expectations over the next couple of years. Warranty expense over the past four quarters exceeded our expectations; while we are forecasting a 2014 decline in expense, we now see that decline coming at a slower rate. NAV has also continued to lose Class 8 market share (R3M); softer pricing
and/or incentives may be required to stem further share loss. We think NAV management is doing an admirable job cutting costs and improving its portfolio, but we believe prospects for improved profitability going forward are already reflected in current valuation. Accordingly, we downgrade shares to Neutral [from Buy].Shares of Navistar have dropped 4.1% to $31.89 at 2:02 p.m. today, while Oshkosh (OSK) has fallen 0.2% to $57.76 and Cummins (CMI) has gained 1.2% to $144.13.
- [By Lauren Pollock]
Navistar International Corp.'s(NAV) (NAV) fiscal fourth-quarter revenue dropped more than expected as the commercial truck manufacturer posted lower sales in all its business segments. The company attributed that weakness to softer industry conditions and lower market share during the company’s emissions strategy transition. Shares slipped 5% to $37.50 premarket.
- [By Roberto Pedone]
Another potential earnings short-squeeze play is Navistar International (NAV), a manufacturer of international brand commercial and military trucks, which is set to release its numbers Wednesday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Navistar International to report revenue of $2.92 billion on a loss of $1.30 per share.
The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Navistar International is pretty high at 12.4%. That means that out of the 53.80 million shares in the tradable float, 10.62 million shares are sold short by the bears. This is a decent short interest on a stock with a relatively low tradable float. Any bullish earnings news could easily spark a big short-squeeze for shares of NAV post-earnings.
From a technical perspective, NAV is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been trending sideways inside of a consolidation pattern for the last month and change, with shares moving between $32.54 on the downside and $35.90 on the upside. Any high-volume move above the upper-end of its recent range could trigger a big breakout trade for shares of NAV post-earnings.
If you're in the bull camp on NAV, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $35.27 to $35.90 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.18 million shares. If that breakout triggers, then NAV will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $38.81 a share. Any high-volume move above that level will then give NAV a chance to trend north of $40 a share.
I would simply avoid NAV or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some key near-term support levels at $33.27 a share to its 50-day at $32.41 a shar
Top Cheapest Companies To Invest In 2014: Brown-Forman Corp (BFB)
Brown-Forman Corporation, incorporated on October 19, 1933, primarily manufactures, bottles, imports, exports, markets, and sells a variety of alcoholic beverage brands. The Company�� principal brands are Jack Daniel�� Tennessee Whiskey, Jack Daniel�� Tennessee Whiskey, Pepe Lopez Tequilas, Jack Daniel�� Single Barrel, Woodford Reserve Bourbons, Jack Daniel�� Ready-to-Drinks, Canadian Mist Blended Canadian Whiskies, Jack Daniel�� Tennessee Honey, Chambord Liqueur, Jack Daniel�� Winter Jack Chambord Vodka, Gentleman Jack, Collingwood Canadian Whisky, Southern Comfort, Early Times Bourbon, Southern Comfort Ready-to-Drinks, Early Times flavored line extensions, Southern Comfort flavored line extensions, Early Times Kentucky Whisky, Finlandia Vodkas, Korbel California Champagnes, Finlandia Ready-to-Drinks, Little Black Dress Vodkas, Antiguo Tequila, Maximus Vodkas, el Jimador Tequilas, Old Forester Bourbon, el Jimador New Mix Ready-to-Drinks, Sonoma-Cutrer Wines, Herradura Tequilas, and Tuaca Liqueur.
The Company�� products are sold in more than 150 countries around the world. The Company�� international markets include Australia, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Germany, Poland, France, Russia, Japan, Turkey, Canada, Spain, Czech Republic, South Africa, Brazil and Italy.
The Company competes with Bacardi Limited, Beam Inc., Davide Campari-Milano S.p.A., Diageo plc, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton S.A., Pernod Ricard S.A., and Remy Cointreau S.A.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Seth Jayson]
Brown-Forman (NYSE: BFB ) reported earnings on June 5. Here are the numbers you need to know.
The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended April 30 (Q4), Brown-Forman met expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share. - [By Maria Armental var popups = dojo.query(".socialByline .popC"); popups.forEach]
Brown-Forman Corp.(BFB) said its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings jumped 17% as the Jack Daniel’s whiskey maker posted higher sales and wider margins. Earnings beat expectations.
- [By Laura Brodbeck]
Wednesday
Earnings Expected From: Christopher & Banks Corporation (NYSE: CBK), Brown Forman Corporation (NYSE: BFB), Express, Inc. (NYSE: EXPR), Avago Technologies (NASDAQ: AVGO) Economic Releases Expected: US nonfarm employment change, US trade balance, Canadian trade balance, US new home sales, US ISM non-manufacturing PMIThursday
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